In April, 2008 five IBM scientists including myself appeared at the USC Film School on a panel discussing what the world would look like in 2050. Picture here.
The general topic was “putting the science back in science fiction.”
We each had five minutes to articulate how technologies might
affect us in the year 2050. The rest of the session was dedicated to Q&A. I presented a newly crafted hand-drawn
PowerPoint deck entitled “Macro Trends
and What They Mean for 2050.”
In summary, I made these observations about the future:
1. Big advances are generally not the result of any single technology but rather the result of combinations of technologies.
2. Good news: The world continues to become less dangerous. Today, we live longer than any time in the
history of man – and this trend will continue. More here: The
World is Not a More Dangerous Place.
2050
Prediction: Your doctor is 102 and this is not weird.
3.0 Fewer people can create much more, much faster … and more easily.
3.1. The bad news is faster death: Today, it takes less than 50 people and
less than $100,000 to manufacture – and infest humans with – the reanimated
1918 Spanish Influenza virus. Some
estimates place the death toll of such an event at 160 million people. That is an awful lot of death for relatively
little cost and effort. More here: More
Death Cheaper in Future.
3.2. The good news is faster wealth: On the other side of the coin, wealth
can now be created faster than ever. For
example, Marc Zuckerberg of FaceBook
went from zero to over a billion in net worth in under three years. More here: Ludicrous
Speed Billionaires.
2050
Prediction: Your 14-year-old neighbor makes $10B from their bedroom.
4.1. Surveillance societies are not only inevitable, irreversible … but
more importantly they are irresistible! You love location-based services on your phone and you will love RFID chips in your sunglasses so
you can find them if you lose them. More here: Six
Ticks till Midnight: One Plausible Journey from Here to a Total Surveillance
Society.
4.2. Sensors become ubiquitous … not due to governments … rather this is
caused by commercial enterprises as they compete for consumers who are eager to
adopt any and all technologies that help them optimize their lives. More here: Ubiquitous
Sensors? You Have Seen Nothing Yet.
6. When collective intelligence serves you and your doctor … you are going
to love it. But when it serves the
police looking at you … you are going to hate it.
7. And that is the truth about the future … it’s going to be love/hate.
Here is a related news story:
C|Net – Imagining the Tech World in 2050
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